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Friday, November 22, 2024

Auditorium

Lectures and presentations

Videos and presentations explaining the principles of statistical analysis of elections.

Russian governors of 2020 already under the microscope

Russian governors of 2020 already under the microscope

New Additions

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A long-awaited update to the Lab: the 17 gubernatorial elections for the 2020 Single Voting Day have been fully uploaded!"

Now you can admire on your own such unique phenomena as:

  • " Spike of Governor Bogomaz",  from the Bryansk region, whose peak result sniped hit 70.0% to the nearest cent!!! What a peak!!!
  • Falsifications out of respect" in the Tambov region, which Sergey Shpilkin () wrote about, when the commissions in Rasskazovo drew a local businessman an honourable second place, completely forgetting about the laws of nature. 
  • "Two-Humped Governor Kobzev" tearing his region into two equal parts: "city" and "village".
  • "Cloud Wall" 50 per cent turnout for Governor Drozdenko of the Leningrad region. The rural districts wanted to please the governor with a turnout of at least 50%, and this is how it came out.
  • and many other fresh curiosities.

Well, drawing "under the line in such regions as Krasnodar Krai and Tatarstan is no longer a surprise to anyone. You can be calm: everything is in place. See for yourself™.

List of new elections to study

The list of uploaded elections includes: 

  • Election of the head of administration (governor) of Krasnodar Krai
  • Election of the head of administration of the Tambov region
  • Election of the Head of the Komi Republic
  • Election of the Head of the Chuvash Republic
  • Election of the Governor of the Arkhangelsk Region
  • Election of the Governor of the Bryansk region
  • Election of the Governor of the Jewish Autonomous Region
  • Election of the Governor of the Kaluga Region
  • Election of the Governor of the Kostroma region
  • Election of the Governor of the Leningrad Region
  • Election of the Governor of the Penza Region
  • Election of the Governor of the Rostov region
  • Election of the Governor of the Smolensk region
  • Election of the President of the Republic of Tatarstan
  • Election of the Governor of Sevastopol
  • Election of the Governor of Sevastopol
  • Early elections of the Governor of the Irkutsk region
  • Election of the Governor of the Kamchatka Territory
  • Early election of the Governor of the Perm Territory

 

In addition, at the request of one of the losing candidates, the elections to the City Council of Magnitogorsk were uploaded on an experimental basis. Unlike the usual analysis, when a single district is studied, there were 32 districts in the city of Magnitogorsk. The data is artificially grouped on the parties which have nominated candidates. Unfortunately for the candidate, obvious falsifications were not found. Most likely, there was a collusion with three self-nominated candidates who surprisingly defeated representatives of the ruling party in three districts.

But I may have missed something. See for yourself™. Help the man.

Time of publication and completeness of data

As you know, the election took place on 13.09.2020, but it wasn't until a week later, 21 September, that data became available to draw on. The "captcha" battle that unfolded on the CEC website also played an important role. The captcha was overcome almost immediately, but this led to a change in the data format for processing, without which the data would have been produced more quickly.

 

It should be remembered that it has never before been possible to make updates at such speed for so many elections. The exceptions are the presidential and parliamentary elections in Russia, Armenia and Ukraine, but these are still national elections, the only ones of the day.

The only exception is the presidential and parliamentary elections.

Note that in all the data provided by S. Shpilkin, one PEC is missing: the numerical PEC. The small discrepancy caused by this is indicated in the description of each election. The discrepancy is negligibly small and does not interfere with admiring the picture.
See for yourself™, search for yourself™. That's what this resource is for. Share your finds on social media, email [email protected], and we'll be happy to publish your discoveries.

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