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Thursday, November 14, 2024

Methods

Methods of visualisation and analysis of electoral data

Natalia Z. The most suspicious elections 2019

Natalia Z. The most suspicious elections 2019

Homework from Natalia Z. for the Visualizing Democracy course

 
Laborator's note:

Natalia has a keen eye! She has discerned valid coincidences between the results in TEC "Nevel ship" and similar TECs in Sakhalin. But as in the case with the Murmansk Ship Commissions, such coincidence has a natural origin. Thus, the graphs obtained in our Laboratory show that the number of voters at the suspicious PECs is 17:

Image

While the number of votes for Limarenko is 10. 17, perhaps, is a standard collective of a fishing trawler. And 10 is a coincidence, rare, but not "impossible" with a collective of 17 people. 

Image

The coincidence of results on small collectives of a dozen or two people is mathematical in nature, while the coincidence on PECs with 1,000-2,000 voters is human. 

Small collectives can be calculated both by name, e.g., "ship" and by constructing a graph, e.g., Gabdulvaleev.

The mathematical nature of the phenomenon called "integer fractions". So by constructing a graph, such as Gabdulvaleev's.

The mathematical nature of the phenomenon called "integer fractions" is clear from the fact that the results are exactly the same. It could be 3/5, 7/12, or, as in our case, 10/17.

I have no other comments on Natalia's work. Gabdulvaleev's necklace at the TEC "Ufa Ordzhonikidzevskaya" a fine and beautifully presented booty. 

For you, researchers:

The electoral data of all the elections from this article has been uploaded into the Lab . Now, you can see the elections with your own eyes™.
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RF Unified E-Day 2019

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  • Homework(.pdf, 1.98 MB) - 1965 download(s)

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