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Monday, December 23, 2024

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Methods of visualisation and analysis of electoral data

On the fabricated results of the referendum in the Luhansk region
EG

On the fabricated results of the referendum in the Luhansk region

A mathematician detected falsification using three numerals

Alexander Kireev writes:

I wrote a lot about the referendum in the Donetsk region. But there was also a referendum in Luhansk. What about it? Were the results fabricated too? Of course, they were! papa_lyosha  and barouh brilliantly analyzed this issue in the comments to the previous post. In elections and referendums, votes are usually counted first (absolute numbers), and then percentages are calculated. But when results are fabricated, percentages are made up first, and absolute numbers are then derived from them. That’s how they got caught.

It was papa_lyosha who first pointed this out:

By the way, did you notice that in Luhansk, the percentage of "for" votes was exactly 96.2%, down to the individual voter? The valid ballots totalled 1,349,360.
If you multiply this by 96.2% and round to the nearest whole number, you get 1,298,084 people, exactly the number of "for" votes reported by the CEC. Since 0.1% equals more than 1,000 people, the probability of this result being a whole number to the decimal point is less than 1/1000. In other words, it could happen randomly, but it’s highly unlikely.

But it could have happened!! Yet here, barouh noted that they precisely hit two percentages, not just the "for" vote percentage but also the turnout percentage!

1,807,739 × 75.2% = 1,359,419.73
But the number of votes cast was 1,359,420.

So the "for" percentage was 96.2000%, and the turnout was 75.2000%.

The case of fabricated referendum results in the Luhansk region can be considered closed.

Next Article In Luhansk, addition was dismissed as a Bandera method.
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