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Monday, November 11, 2024

Methods

Methods of visualisation and analysis of electoral data

Twenty-one governors are ready for the probe

Twenty-one governors are ready for the probe

The Central Election Commission of Russia (the CEC) planned to hide the digital data from the public, just as it hides from the public the videos on which we love to catch ballot box stuffing, carousels and other crimes.

But the CEC failed.

Although with difficulty, data miners completed the parsing of data on the gubernatorial elections. Finally, we got the last one from them: the Tyumen governor's election.

Now we have exactly 21 governors. And we are extremely happy to publish them in in the new "Special Tools" section.

All parsings are checked for conformity with the CEC results, the discrepancies are related to 1-2 precincts, which is due to the instability of data on the CEC website, but the precision is enough for analysis. For this verification there is a special part of the integrated tool: the verification table.

The governors' 21 is bristling with the awls of DEGs and the red hedgehogs of anomalous votes.

But, these are only our interpretations of the data: in our selection of the "honest PEC zone".

These diagrams are unique and innovative. No one has done this before. Now you can choose the "zone of honest PECs" yourself. The tool will recalculate the total number of anomalous votes automatically.

In addition, you will be able to work with:

  • Kiesling-Shpilkin's graphs
    • in traditional notation
    • in extended notation
    • as a histogram
    • for all candidates
  • Scatter-plot diagram
    • of turnout
    • of the number of registered voters
  • Geographic-administrative diagram
    • for the leader
    • for turnout
  • Hi-Res Histogram builder
    • for turnout
    • for the leader
  • Verification table for checking the consistency of parsing
  • Reference table for data for any sample of TECs and PECs

Integration is an important element of the new tools. For example, you can now conclude the old argument about peaks at integer percentages: Geo-Admin diagram will even tell you the numbers of those PECs that produce a given peak on the Hi-Res histogram.

How to detect falsifications with the help of these tools is described in the video using the example of falsifications discovered in the Moscow region in September 2023..

For you, researchers:

The electoral data of all the elections from this article has been uploaded into the Lab . Now, you can see the elections with your own eyes™.
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