Андрей Бузин / Friday, July 3, 2020 / Categories: Articles by geography, Russia, Dependence of results on the turnout Dependence of "Yes" share on types of turnout Oh, how the electoral statistics would have gone wild if Bulayev in the AP had been told to publish data on how early voting was conducted by polling stations! Oh, how many fine examples of the falsification of this "triumph" we would have had, if it had been possible to look at the acts of early voting and scrutinize the lists of voters at PECs without scandals! But the thundering statements about openness and publicity coming from the CEC are easily drowned out by the cotton-wool wall of lower-level commissions that guard state secrets from citizens. I barely managed to break through the defenders of "nationwide approval" and to get some information at the grassroots level (at the level of TECs and PECs). But more about that in the next post. Now I'll talk about what Bulayev failed to hide, and what came out even at the regional level. And what has come out is that the share of "YES" responses has a VERY high correlation with early voting and is almost independent of the July 1 vote. Here it is, an expressive picture. I dedicate it to the CEC, the AP probably doesn't care about it now. (In the picture, the dots correspond to the subjects of the Federation) Print 16821 Tags: RF Constitutional Referendum 2020 Данные для статьиfullLaboratory support for articlefullDossier's BlockRF Constitutional Referendum 2020Theoretic depthObservation More links Источник Related articles A triumphant victory over myself A bell, a saw, an axe Moscow and the Motherland are united Russia Constitutional Referendum 2020 Please login or register to post comments.
Criticism and bibliography Criticism and bibliography Borisov I.B., Zadorin I.V., Ignatov A.V., Marachevsky V.N., Fedorov V.I., Mathematical tools of election delegitimization. Report of the Russian Public Institute of Electoral Law. Moscow, 2020, Alexander Shen / Wednesday, September 16, 2020 0 8059 The peer-reviewed paper again raises the question about the incorrectness of the statistical analysis. But it is based on a misunderstanding: the authors rightly point out and confirm with numerous examples that the histograms of elections may well be very different from the «Gaussian» even in the absence of falsifications. Probably, they have not seen the works mentioned above and assume that so far the conclusions about falsifications are based on the deviation from «Gaussianity». Read more
Funny story about the Tambov region Funny story about the Tambov region Сергей Шпилькин / Monday, September 14, 2020 0 25910 Governor Nikitin's result directly even resembles the cluster of the city of Tambov. One could rejoice, but this result is a draw. The result is a draw. Read more
The real turnout in Kuban was ~25% The real turnout in Kuban was ~25% Ivan Shukshin / Monday, September 14, 2020 0 23765 Kanevskaya, where I spent my childhood, drew the biggest turnout, 97%. And Pavlovskaya - the biggest percentage to Kondratiev, 94%. Crooks. Read more
Review of the ROIPP report "Mathematical Tools for Delegitimizing Elections" Review of the ROIPP report "Mathematical Tools for Delegitimizing Elections" Андрей Бузин / Sunday, September 6, 2020 0 7784 Yes, something must be done with our society, which «still has some flaws». It is very gullible and therefore prefers Shpilkin to Borisov. But it is necessary to implement a number of measures to remove distrust in the procedures for establishing the results of voting». It is possible, for example, to establish not only a captcha for obtaining these results, but to declare them a state secret for disclosure of which one can get 10 years. And for the use of the Gauss function, we should deprive them of the right to correspond. It is time to fight back against the mathematicians who are invading our social processes! Read more
Mathematical tools for delegitimizing elections. Report Mathematical tools for delegitimizing elections. Report Report of the Russian Public Institute for Electoral Law (RPIEL) EG / Thursday, September 3, 2020 0 8489 3 сентября 2020 года на сайте Российского общественного института избирательного права (РОИИП) был опубликован доклад "Математические инструменты делегитимации выборов". In it, the authors criticized one of the methods of analysis: unimodality. They concluded that "with existing methods of mathematical analysis it is impossible to describe and make an assessment of electoral behavior and voting outcomes" and reduced everything to a "political struggle". We suggest to read how convincingly and reasonably they did it. Read more