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The voting results in the LNR and Zaporizhzhia regions are fabricated
Roman Udot
/ Categories: Ukraine, Luhansk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Reverse Engineering

The voting results in the LNR and Zaporizhzhia regions are fabricated

The candidates' results do not show the randomness expected from the free expression of citizens' will

A mathematician, who wished to remain anonymous, discovered that the voting results in the LNR (Luhansk People’s Republic) and Zaporizhzhia regions are literally "fabricated." By definition, "fabricated" means "manufactured."

Indeed, the absolute results for the candidates do not conform to the randomness expected from the free expression of citizens' will.

Calculations for Luhansk and Zaporizhzhya oblasts.

Calculations for Luhansk and Zaporizhzhya oblasts.

Figures obtained by entering CEC data into an Excel spreadsheet.



Calculations in the commissions of the Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions were carried out in a reversed order: the number of votes for candidates was obtained by multiplying a certain turnout (valid + invalid ballots) by planned candidate percentages predetermined to an accuracy of one-tenth of a percent.

This has also been observed previously in the LNR and DNR (Donetsk People’s Republic) in past years, during other "elections" and "referenda."

This is why the Central Election Commission hides the data for precinct election commissions in the "new territories." These figures are not involved in the calculations of final totals.

The reality of these turnout figures also remains questionable too.

The expected probability that freely voting citizens’ data would randomly result in such round percentages when divided by turnout can be estimated as (1/150)^4 and (1/45)^4, i.e., 2*10^-9 and 2*10^-7, respectively. This translates to "once in 500 million elections" and "once in 4 million elections," respectively.

The probability of the "elections" in the Luhansk region: 0.000000002.
The probability of the "elections" in the Zaporizhzhia region: 0.0000002.

Another story is how the Russian Central Election Commission hides election data in the occupied territories.

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Criticism and bibliography Criticism and bibliography

Criticism and bibliography

Borisov I.B., Zadorin I.V., Ignatov A.V., Marachevsky V.N., Fedorov V.I., Mathematical tools of election delegitimization. Report of the Russian Public Institute of Electoral Law. Moscow, 2020,

Alexander Shen 0 8471

The peer-reviewed paper again raises the question about the incorrectness of the statistical analysis. But it is based on a misunderstanding: the authors rightly point out and confirm with numerous examples that the histograms of elections may well be very different from the «Gaussian» even in the absence of falsifications. Probably, they have not seen the works mentioned above and assume that so far the conclusions about falsifications are based on the deviation from «Gaussianity».

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