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Friday, December 27, 2024

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Videos and presentations explaining the principles of statistical analysis of elections.

On Fabricated Election Results in the Donetsk People's Republic
EG

On Fabricated Election Results in the Donetsk People's Republic

The results of the election for the Head of the Donetsk People's Republic were fabricated.

Alex Kieev wrote:

Minutes of the Central Election Commission of the DPR page 1

Minutes of the Central Election Commission of the DPR page 1

You won't believe it, but the election results in the DNR were fabricated. Here are the election results published on the official website of the Government and Supreme Council of the DNR:

  • Zakharchenko: 765,340
  • Kofman: 111,024
  • Sivokonенко: 93,280

In total, 969,644 votes. Now let's calculate the percentages:

  • Zakharchenko: 78.93000%
  • Kofman: 11.45000%
  • Sivokonenko: 9.62000%

Again, the percentage points match exactly to the individual voter, just like in the LNR's May referendum: first, they wrote down the percentages, and THEN calculated the absolute numbers based on them. But when votes are actually counted, rather than results fabricated, the process should be the other way around. The LNR already learned from this mistake and didn’t repeat it, but this time it happened in the DNR.

The number of invalid ballots was 43,039, making the total number of voters (valid plus invalid ballots) 1,012,683. Calculating the percentage of invalid ballots from this total gives us 4.25000%!

Minutes of the Central Election Commission of the DPR page 2

Minutes of the Central Election Commission of the DPR page 2

Interestingly, on the official website of the Government and Supreme Council of the DNR, the percentages for the candidates differ and do not match the absolute numbers in the protocol! Here are the percentages given in the text of the announcement:

  • Zakharchenko: 77.51%
  • Kofman: 10.03%
  • Sivokonenko: 8.21%

If calculated based on the total number of votes for the candidates, the percentages would match those listed earlier. However, if calculated based on the total number of votes for candidates and invalid ballots, the percentages turn out differently:

  • Zakharchenko: 75.58%
  • Kofman: 10.96%
  • Sivokonenko: 9.21%
  • Invalid ballots: 4.25%

Even the proportions of votes for the candidates differ from what is stated in their own protocol below this announcement!

So, what do we have? The number of polling stations was reduced several times over, artificially creating long lines at the stations. After keeping some elderly voters in the cold for a couple of hours and taking the necessary photos for the media, they simply fabricated the election results. And those elderly voters stood in the cold for nothing: their votes were not counted, because first the percentages were calculated, and only then were absolute numbers derived from them.

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